Polonia y su lugar en el nuevo panorama geopolítico europeo posterior a la invasión rusa de Ucrania en 2022: repercusiones del surgimiento de una nueva potencia militar

Andrés Alejandro Araujo Bermúdez

doi:10.32870/in.vi26.7270

Authors

Andrés Alejandro Araujo Bermúdez Universidad del Valle de Atemajac

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32870/in.vi26.7270

Keywords:

Poland, Russo-Ukrainian War, geopolitical, European security, military power

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 has set in motion a series of structural changes in the European security and geopolitical architecture. Amongst these changes is the rise of Poland as a military power. This work will explain the implications of Poland’s new military capabilities for the European security. For this, it will detail the European geopolitical environment in the 21st century. It will also establish the ways in which the Russo-Ukrainian War has changed the continent and will continue to change it. Concluding that the emergence of Poland as a military power, will completely alter the European political environment and the continent’s security architecture, due to its growing capabilities and geopolitical interests that will interact with other events, such as the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the rise of Turkey.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

AFP. (2023, 5 abril). Le Pen would beat Macron if French presidential vote repeated: poll. France 24. Recuperado 5 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230405-le-pen-would-beat-macron-if-french-presidential-vote-repeated-poll

Bergmann, M. (2022, 28 septiembre). Poland and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.csis.org/analysis/poland-and-war-ukraine-conversation-zbigniew-rau-polands-minister-foreign-affairs

DW News. (2023, 23 febrero). The true impact of a year of war on Russia’s economy | DW Business Special (R. Watts) [Vídeo]. YouTube. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds&t=1292s

European External Action Service [EEAS]. (2020, 30 noviembre). EUFOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA Military Operation ALTHEA. The Diplomatic Service of the European Union. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eufor-althea/eufor-bosnia-herzegovina-military-operation-althea_en

Francis, D.-J. (2013). The regional impact of the armed conflict and French intervention in Mali. En NOREF. The Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/163177/f18726c3338e39049bd4d554d4a22c36.pdf

Francis, D. (2023, 28 enero). Poland is leading Europe’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Atlantic Council. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/poland-is-leading-europes-response-to-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

Friedman, G. (2010). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. New York, New York. Anchor Books.

Friedman, G. (2012). The Next Decade: Empire and Republic in a Changing World. New York, New York. Anchor Books.

Good Times Bad Times. (20 de febrero de 2023). Record Deficit Heralds the Collapse of the Russian Economy. [Video]. Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqAfGVdKXz4&t=423s

González, L.-A. (2017). Las Tendencias, los Enfoques, y las Nuevas Escuelas de la Geopolítica. en GP Gavilán Rojas, AT Gutiérrez del Cid y BN Pérez Rodríguez (Coords). La Geopolítica del Siglo XXI (pp. 17-31). México. Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Xochimilco.

Hill, E., & Horton, A. (2023, 20 abril). Ukraine planned attacks on Russian forces in Syria, leaked document shows. Washington Post. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/

Hird, K., Bailey, R., Mappes, G., Barros, G., & Kagan, F.-W. (2023). RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 24, 2023. Institute for the Study of War. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2023

Kantchev, G., & Gershkovich, E. (2023, 28 marzo). Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone: Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’. The Wall Street Journal. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-starting-to-come-undone-431a2878

Karnitschnig, M., & Kość, W. (2022, 21 noviembre). Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland: Warsaw is turning to major arms deals with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe. Politico. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-military-superpower-poland-army/

Kranz, M. (2022). How the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Is Turning Poland Into a Strategic Player : Warsaw is set to become the linchpin of the West’s efforts to project power in Eastern Europe. Foreign Policy Magazine. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/poland-ukraine-russia-crisis-nato-strategic-role-military-diplomacy-war/

Liu, Z.-Z. (2023, 2 febrero). China Can’t Export Its Way Out of Economic Crisis: Government stimulus and greater exports can’t dig China’s economy out of a deep hole. Foreign Policy Magazine. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/02/beijing-economy-playbook-gdp-household-consumption/

Marc, A. (2021, 29 abril). The death of Chadian President Idris Déby Itno threatens stability in the region. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/04/29/the-death-of-chadian-president-idris-deby-itno-threatens-stability-in-the-region/

McGinnis, A. (2015). A Snapshot in Time: English Reactions to the Franco-Prussian War [Tesis de pregrado, Bridgewater State University]. BSU Honors Program Theses and Projects. http://vc.bridgew.edu/honors_proj/125

Pollmann, M. (2022). Japan’s Ruling Coalition Approves Counterstrike Capability: The long-debated move comes alongside increased defense spending amid worries about Japan’s security environment. The Diplomat. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/japan-approves-counterstrike-capability/

RANE Stratfor. (2022a, 28 octubre). The Risks of Kazakhstan’s Slow Drift From Russia. RANE Worldview Stratfor. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/risks-kazakhstans-slow-drift-russia

RANE Stratfor. (2022b, 6 diciembre). In Russia, What Would Need to Happen to Seriously Threaten Putin’s Power? RANE Worldview Powered by Stratfor. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-what-would-need-happen-seriously-threaten-putin-s-power

Reuveny, R., & Prakash, A. (1999). The Afghanistan war and the breakdown of the Soviet Union. Review of International Studies, 25(4), 693-708. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210599006932

Riasanovsky, N.-V., Medvedkov, Y.-V., Arsentyevich, S., Hosking, G.-A., Szostak, S., Tompkinson, G., Lieven, D., Keenan, E.-L., McCauley, M., Raeff, M., Seton-Watson, H., Taruskin, R., Wachtel, A.-B., Dewdney, J.-C., Hellie, R., & Medvedkov, O.-L. (2023, 10 mayo). Post-Soviet Russia. Encyclopaedia Britannica. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Post-Soviet-Russia

Ryan, M., Hill, E., & O’Grady, S. (2023, 17 abril). Egypt nearly supplied rockets to Russia, agreed to arm Ukraine instead, leak shows. Washington Post. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/17/russia-ukraine-egypt-weapons-leaked-documents/

Skolimowski, P. (2022, 1 junio). EU to Back Polish 36 Billion-Euro Aid Plan With Strings Attached. Bloomberg News. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/eu-to-back-polish-36-billion-euro-aid-plan-with-strings-attached

Stepanenko, K., Bailey, R., Mappes, G., & Kagan, F.-W. (2023, 21 abril). RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 21, 2023. Institute for the Study of War. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-21-2023

Taylor, P.-J., & Flint, C. (2002). Geografía Política: Economía-mundo, estado-nación y localidad (2.a ed.). Madrid, España. Trama Editorial.

Team Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica (2023, April 24). Russian Revolution. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Russian-Revolution

The Brussels Times. (2023, 6 abril). Netherlands to contribute to EU military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Brussles Times. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.brusselstimes.com/446464/netherlands-to-contribute-to-eu-military-mission-in-bosnia-and-herzegovina

The Economist. (2023). Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one: Its defences against Western sanctions can only stretch so far. The Economist. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

Zabrodskyi, M., Watling, j., Danylyuk, O.-V., & Reynolds, N. (2022). Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022. En Royal United Services Institute. Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. Recuperado 6 de mayo de 2023, de https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Zolotova, E. (2023, 17 abril). Belarus and Russia: Partners for Now: Belarus is beholden to Russia, but it is still guided by self-interest. Geopolitical Futures. Recuperado 7 de mayo de 2023, de https://geopoliticalfutures.com/belarus-and-russia-partners-for-now/